(1) U.S Dollar Index Chart ::

US Dollar Index :: Dollar carry trade game prove all technical wrong from last two month.. Is The US dollar heading towards zero..?? Dollar chart, looks like inverse chart of stock market and commodity market..
Important factor fuelling this asset bubble is the weakness of the US dollar, driven by all carry trades. The US dollar has become the major funding currency of carry trades as the Fed has keep interest rate on hold,, Investors who are shorting the US dollar to buy on a highly leveraged basis higher yielding assets and other global assets are not just borrowing at zero interest rates in dollar terms, they are borrowing at very negative interest rates as low as negative 10 or 20 % annualized, as the fall in the US dollar leads to massive capital gains on short dollar positions. Traders are borrowing at negative 20 % rates to invest on a highly leveraged basis on a mass of risky global assets that are rising in price due to excess liquidity and a massive carry trade. Every investor who plays this risky game looks like a genius, even if they are just riding a huge bubble financed by a large negative cost of borrowing, as the total returns have been in the 50-70 % since March.. But one day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest co-ordinate asset (like stocks, commodity) bust ever.. If factors lead the dollar to reverse and suddenly appreciate, the leveraged carry trade will have to be suddenly closed as investors cover their dollar shorts. And collapse of all those risky assets like equities, commodities, emerging market asset classes and credit instruments. This unraveling may not occur for a while, as easy money and excessive global liquidity can push asset prices higher for a while. But the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash. The Fed and other policymakers seem unaware of the monster bubble they are creating. The longer they remain blind, the harder the markets will fall,,
And chart pattern tells that carry trade game may be end sooner..
Dollar index moving down as 5 of C last leg and maximum target of this 5th leg in between 74.40 to 74.60.. Already treading near end of wave target.. May be any time Dollar start to move up from low as far as stay above 74.40 (time target 16th Nov to 18th Nov).. For conformation of 5th of C over when rally start to trade above 77.. Till then wait and watch and stay away form stock and commodity market.. If US Dollar fail to sustain above 74.40 then next strong support March low 70.70..
(Some part of post copy from Financial times 1st Nov post)

(1) Nifty Chart For 13/11/2009 ::

Nifty :: Once again an Incomplete Dark Cloud Cover bearish candle pattern .In bar chart seems buying pressure with high volume.. As per our last post in this up move red bar volume always increase and in green bar volume decreasing, its indicate corrective up move.. Target of buying pressure bar at 4837 in coming days as far as Nifty close below 5016.. Before 4837 watch strong support zone in between 4870 to 4890.. May be Nifty try to bounce beck from this level in intraday if open gap down.. Our strategy for 13th Nov. Sell at high (S.L 5006/5016) buy in deep (S.L 4837).. If Nifty open gap down then change your strategy as buy in deep (S.L 4870) sell at high (S.L 5006).. Resistance for up move at 4980/5010/5016/5053.. Supports at 4890/4879/4870/4857/4837..

(1) Nifty Chart For 12/11/2009 ::

Nifty :: Once again large green candle neglect bearish dark cloud candle pattern.. Volume is low compare to yesterday bearish candle.. Technically not good sign, but due to US Dollar slide all word, stock and commodity market move up and up.. Be careful at higher level still Nifty below 5053 mark.. If Nifty break 5053 we reset our last week Elliott wave count but still we stuck with our bearish structure.. Technically we didn’t see any bullish structure yet, in Nifty or Sensex chart.. Put short term strictly short stop loss at 5053 as per our last post and wait for short conformation at higher level, till then stay in side line. Our strategy for 12th Nov.. Up to 5053 sell at high (S.L 5053) buy in deep (S.L 4948).. Resistance for up move at 5033/5053/5077/5110.. Supports at 4958/4890/4880/4860 /4838….

(1) Nifty Chart For 11/11/2009 ::

Nifty :: As we say in yesterday post V shape rally not possible after V shape down fall and it is.. Last candle made incomplete Dark Cloud Cover bearish candle pattern.. Now farther up move required to break 4948.. Till then momentum looks side way or down.. May be Nifty consolidate in between 4764 to 4948 level.. Now buying S.L at 4764 and sell S.L at 4948.. Our strategy for 11th Nov. up to 4948 sell at high (S.L 4948) buy in deep (S.L 4831).. Resistance for up move at 4905/4930/4948/4968/4990.. Supports at 4860/ 4840/4831/4790/4764…

(1) Nifty Chart For 10/11/2009 ::

Nifty :: Body gap up bullish candle with three gaps up bearish candle pattern. Volume is still below 15 day wma.. As per technical terms after V shape downfall, V shape rally is not possible without consolidation.. Nifty heading towards strong resistance zone from 4968 to 5053..Be careful at higher level or avoid buying at higher level...Watch one level, above 4884 momentum seems up, below 4884 momentums down..Our strategy for 10th Nov. buy ONLY in deep (S.L 4790) Sell at high (S.L 5002/5053).. Resistance for up move at 4935/4968/4973/ 5002/5020/5053..Supports at 4866/4829/4815/4790..

(1) Nifty Chart For Coming Day's ::

Nifty :: As per our last Ending Diagonal post Nifty touch extreme target 5150. Exactly turn down from resistance zone 5110 to 5190..
Now what’s next ?
All you know time to time we gives tops and bottoms analysis with target before its happen in our Elliott wave post , and after conformation of tops or bottoms, we give next down or up move target for coming day’s..
Here we plot different count may be its works in coming day’s as far as Nifty stay below 5053..
Nifty moving up with Cycle degree inverted double zigzag W-X-Y.. Wave W finish at 4693 on 12th Jun 2009, with zigzag A-B-C.. After that Nifty moving with Primary degree Flat as A-B-C.. B may be finish at 5181 on 20th Oct 2009.. And now running last leg C.. Most probably, Nifty touch target in between 3350 to 4220, before end of Jan. 2010. (Maximum time frame, to finish C of X leg up to May 2010). Cycle degree inverted double zigzag X leg target in between 3100 to 4050.. Both C and X wave target match in between 4050 to 3350.. As far as Nifty stay below 5053 once again start to move down as zigzag motion and meet first target 4350 and after breakdown of 4350/4300, its touch target 4220/4050 and below in coming day’s..
(Mid term investor those who exit below 5020 or short below 5020 now revise your short stop loss at 5053)